The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 presents a comprehensive assessment of the future of global agriculture, food markets, and food security over the next decade. Jointly produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the report provides evidence-based projections covering agricultural commodities, aquatic food markets, trade, productivity, climate impacts, and rural livelihoods at the global, regional, and national levels.

According to the report, global agricultural production is projected to increase by 13% by 2035, largely driven by productivity improvements and more intensive production systems rather than major expansion of agricultural land. Most of this growth is expected to occur in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, reflecting continued investments in agricultural development and increasing demand for food.

While the outlook highlights encouraging gains in productivity and farm incomes, it also warns that climate change, geopolitical instability, rising input costs, and structural inequalities continue to threaten food security, particularly in low-income countries.

About the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is an annual flagship publication that provides long-term projections for agricultural commodity markets and food systems.

Developed in collaboration with OECD and FAO member countries and international commodity organizations, the report serves as an important reference for policymakers, researchers, agribusinesses, and development organizations by supporting evidence-based agricultural planning and investment decisions.

The 2026–2035 edition also includes supplementary analysis examining how disruptions associated with the 2026 Middle East conflict could affect fertilizer availability, cereal production, and food security.

Global Agricultural Production Expected to Rise by 13%

The report projects that agricultural production will continue to expand steadily over the next decade.

Key findings include:

Global agricultural production is projected to increase by 13% by 2035.
Growth will be driven primarily by productivity improvements and production intensification.
The largest increases are expected in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America.
Agricultural land expansion is expected to remain relatively limited compared to productivity gains.

These projections suggest that technological improvements and better farming practices will play a larger role in meeting future food demand than expanding cultivated land.

Agricultural Productivity Continues to Improve

The report forecasts continued improvements in agricultural productivity worldwide.

Highlights include:

Global gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by approximately 9% by 2035.
Productivity gains are expected to strengthen agricultural output despite increasing production costs.
Higher productivity is anticipated to support more efficient food production while helping moderate long-term food prices.

However, productivity gains are not expected to be distributed evenly across all regions.

Major Differences Between High- and Low-Income Countries

The report emphasizes significant disparities in agricultural productivity and income between countries.

In high-income economies:

Agricultural labour productivity exceeds USD 21,000 per worker.
Highly mechanized farming systems contribute to greater efficiency.
Larger farms and stronger access to technology support higher productivity.

In contrast, many low-income countries—particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia—continue to face:

Labour-intensive production systems.
Limited mechanization.
Restricted market access.
Heavy dependence on subsistence agriculture.
Lower agricultural incomes.

These structural challenges continue to hinder efforts to reduce rural poverty and improve food security.

Climate Change and Agricultural Emissions

Although productivity is expected to improve, agricultural production growth will still contribute to rising greenhouse gas emissions.

The report projects:

Direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions will increase by approximately 6.5% by 2035.
Livestock production will account for around 77% of this increase.
Increased use of synthetic fertilizers will contribute the remaining emissions growth.

The Outlook stresses the importance of accelerating sustainable productivity growth and closing technology gaps to reduce emissions while maintaining global food security.

Food Security Remains a Global Challenge

The report notes that millions of people, particularly in low-income countries, continue to face serious food security challenges.

Key concerns include:

Low household incomes.
Limited investment in agricultural production.
Poor transport and storage infrastructure.
High food losses across supply chains.
Difficulty financing food imports.
Reduced access to affordable and nutritious food.

According to the report, productivity improvements and efficient international trade remain essential for maintaining food availability and preventing prolonged increases in food prices.

Impact of the 2026 Middle East Conflict

The Outlook includes additional analysis on the potential effects of disruptions linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict.

The report suggests that:

Higher energy and fertilizer costs could reduce fertilizer use.
Lower fertilizer application may decrease cereal production.
Low-income countries are likely to experience the greatest impact.
Reduced agricultural output may contribute to higher food prices.
Lower-income households could be forced to reduce food consumption and switch to less expensive foods.

These findings highlight the vulnerability of global food systems to geopolitical events and input market disruptions.

International Trade Will Remain Critical

The report emphasizes that rules-based international agricultural trade remains essential for global food security.

Trade helps:

Balance food supply and demand.
Reduce regional food shortages.
Improve market access.
Support farm incomes.
Increase resilience during production shocks.
Mitigate food security risks during crises.

The report also calls for greater investment in transport infrastructure, storage facilities, technology, and trade systems, particularly in low-income countries.

Future Outlook for Global Agriculture

The OECD and FAO conclude that agriculture will continue to evolve through technological progress, improved productivity, and greater market integration.

However, future success will depend on:

Sustainable agricultural practices.
Investment in innovation.
Climate resilience.
Efficient supply chains.
Inclusive rural development.
Strong international cooperation.
Continued support for agricultural research and technology transfer.

Policies that encourage productivity while protecting natural resources will be essential to ensuring food security for a growing global population.

Final Thoughts

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 presents a balanced picture of the future of global agriculture. While projected productivity gains and technological improvements are expected to support a 13% increase in global agricultural production, the report also underscores the persistent challenges posed by climate change, geopolitical instability, inequality, and food insecurity.

For governments, development agencies, researchers, agribusinesses, and policymakers, the report provides valuable insights into the opportunities and risks shaping agricultural markets over the next decade. Continued investment in sustainable farming, resilient food systems, and international cooperation will remain critical to ensuring affordable, nutritious food for populations worldwide.

Keywords

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, OECD FAO Report 2026, Global Agriculture Report, Agricultural Outlook 2035, Food Security Report, Global Food Production, Agricultural Productivity, Sustainable Agriculture, Climate Change Agriculture, OECD Agriculture, FAO Agriculture Report, Global Food Markets, Agricultural Trade, Farm Productivity, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Agriculture, Agricultural Development, Food Systems, Rural Development, Agricultural Innovation, International Trade Agriculture, Climate Smart Agriculture, Agribusiness Trends, Global Farming Outlook, Agricultural Policy, Food Supply Chains, Sustainable Food Systems, Agricultural Economics, OECD Publications, FAO Publications, Agriculture Forecast 2035

APPLY NOW

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035: Global Food Production to Grow 13% as Climate Risks and Food Security Challenges Persist